149 notes, newest first (3 IDEA · 125 WATCH · 21 PASS). Each one is built from the 10-K, 10-Q, proxy, 8-Ks, insider filings and the earnings call or press release, with citations, base/bear/bull valuation and pre-registered kill criteria. Every verdict, including the rejections, is tracked from publication. Methodology · track record · coverage log.
| Ticker | Company | Verdict | Conv | Date | Summary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSBF | Waterstone Financial, Inc. | WATCH | 2 | 2026-09-11 | WATCH, conviction 2. Waterstone is a genuinely improved bank: net interest margin went from 2.17% in 2024 to 3.03% in the June 2026 quarter as an $865M certificate book reprices do… |
| WS | Worthington Steel, Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-11 | WATCH, conviction 3. The screen's "19.8x with net cash" comes from a balance sheet dated one day before Worthington borrowed $1.4 billion, and correcting it moves the stock the wro… |
| VRTS | Virtus Investment Partners, Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-11 | **WATCH, conviction 3.** Virtus is a cheap, high-return, heavily cash-returning boutique asset manager whose whole problem is one factor: it is overweight quality equity in a marke… |
| THRM | Gentherm Incorporated | WATCH | 2 | 2026-09-11 | WATCH, conviction 2. Gentherm is a better business than its screen row suggests and a worse value than it first looks. The screen called it 19.3x by adding back an impairment that … |
| PLOW | Douglas Dynamics, Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-11 | WATCH, conviction 3. Douglas Dynamics is a genuinely good franchise: a 500,000-unit installed base on a 9-to-12-year replacement cycle, gross margins rising through 26.6%, north of… |
| NVGS | Navigator Holdings Ltd. | WATCH | 2 | 2026-09-11 | WATCH, conviction 2. Navigator screened at 10.1x because no debt concept was tagged in XBRL, so the screen booked $920M of real borrowings as zero and handed it a phantom $226M net… |
| NRIM | Northrim BanCorp, Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-11 | WATCH, conviction 3. Northrim is a genuinely good small bank the screen flagged for the wrong reason: the eye-catching "-70% tangible book per share" is nothing but a four-for-one … |
| NATH | Nathan's Famous, Inc. | PASS | 4 | 2026-09-11 | PASS, conviction 4. Nathan's has been a signed deal since 2026-01-20: Smithfield Foods is buying it for $102.00 a share in cash, about $450M of enterprise value, and the equity can… |
| KMPR | Kemper Corporation | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-11 | WATCH, conviction 3. Kemper is a $1.6B non-standard auto and home-service life insurer whose California personal auto book broke on bodily injury severity, taking the underlying co… |
| HBCP | Home Bancorp, Inc. | PASS | 3 | 2026-09-11 | PASS, conviction 3. Home Bancorp is a good bank at a full price, and the two facts sit badly together. Revenue grew 10% in 2025 and 7% last quarter, but all of it is margin: the ne… |
| GLRE | Greenlight Capital Re, Ltd. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-11 | WATCH, conviction 3. Greenlight Re trades at 0.73x its own fully diluted book while earning a normalised return on equity near 8.5%, with almost no debt, an A.M. Best rating upgrad… |
| GASS | StealthGas Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-11 | WATCH, conviction 3. StealthGas is a debt-free owner of 26 small LPG carriers trading at $9.33 against $19.32 of book and roughly $6.64 a share of cash after management collected t… |
| FSUN | FirstSun Capital Bancorp | WATCH | 2 | 2026-09-11 | WATCH, conviction 2. FirstSun reached this desk only because the screen divided post-merger equity by a pre-merger share count: the real stock is $1.88B at 1.14x tangible book and … |
| EGHT | 8x8, Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-11 | WATCH, conviction 3. 8x8 is not the impairment artefact the screen thought it was: there is no impairment, GAAP operating income of $18.9M is real, and once you correct for the mis… |
| CZFS | Citizens Financial Services, Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-11 | WATCH, conviction 3. Citizens Financial is a competently run $3.2B Pennsylvania community bank earning a genuine 15.8% return on tangible equity, compounding tangible book 17.6% ye… |
| CSR | Centerspace | PASS | 4 | 2026-09-11 | PASS, conviction 4. Centerspace is no longer a quality-growth small cap you can underwrite. Since 8 September 2026 it has been a fixed claim on 3.8 shares of Independence Realty Tr… |
| CLDT | Chatham Lodging Trust | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-11 | WATCH, conviction 3. Chatham is a well-run, conservatively financed hotel REIT that screens cheap for reasons that are not real: the screen's 9.0x P/FFO counts a $14.4M gain on hot… |
| CHCT | Community Healthcare Trust Incorporated | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-11 | **WATCH, conviction 3.** Community Healthcare Trust is a $419M healthcare REIT at 7.5x FFO, 8.1x FAD and a 10.4% implied cap rate on its buildings, 78 cents on the dollar of what i… |
| CBNK | Capital Bancorp, Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-11 | WATCH, conviction 3. Capital Bancorp is a genuinely good small bank: a 15.5% return on tangible common equity, tangible book per share compounding 13.6% a year, 26.6% noninterest-b… |
| BLMN | Bloomin' Brands, Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-11 | WATCH, conviction 3. Bloomin' Brands is a real turnaround with a real accounting artifact: FY2025 GAAP operating income of $37.2M against $140.0M adjusted made the trailing numbers… |
| BDN | Brandywine Realty Trust | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-11 | WATCH, conviction 3. Brandywine is a levered Philadelphia and Austin office REIT whose screen row is wrong in both directions: real FFO fell 39% in 2025 rather than growing 124%, b… |
| AII | American Integrity Insurance Group, Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-11 | WATCH, conviction 3. American Integrity is a genuinely good business at a defensible price, but there is no edge case to underwrite and the screen's cheapness is half real. Correct… |
| WWW | Wolverine World Wide, Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-10 | WATCH, conviction 3. Wolverine is an improving business that the screen priced too pessimistically and that the market still prices for stagnation. The screen's 18.1x rested on a s… |
| VTOL | Bristow Group Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-10 | WATCH, conviction 3. Bristow is a good asset, running near-100% effective utilisation of the offshore helicopter fleet that matters plus a search-and-rescue book contracted into th… |
| VMD | Viemed Healthcare, Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-10 | **WATCH, conviction 3.** Viemed is a real, clean, growing business: record patient counts, net cash, a 10% headline free cash flow yield and candid management. But the screen picke… |
| VEL | Velocity Financial, Inc. | PASS | 3 | 2026-09-10 | PASS, conviction 3. Velocity looks like a 6.8x-earnings, 1.0x-book lender compounding tangible book 18% a year, but the earnings are mostly not cash: of $151.5M of last-twelve-mont… |
| UTI | Universal Technical Institute, Inc. | PASS | 3 | 2026-09-10 | PASS, conviction 3. UTI passed the screen on a fiscal year that ended almost a year ago, and on current numbers it is not cheap: trailing twelve month operating profit is $44.3M ag… |
| UAN | CVR Partners, LP | PASS | 3 | 2026-09-10 | **PASS, conviction 3.** The screen is wrong in the partnership's favour, charging CY2025 operating income of $128.7M against a June 2026 balance sheet, so the true trailing multipl… |
| TREE | LendingTree, Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-10 | WATCH, conviction 3. LendingTree screens at 2.5x earnings for one reason, a $149.5M non-cash release of a deferred tax valuation allowance that turned $21.0M of 2025 pre-tax income… |
| TILE | Interface, Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-10 | WATCH, conviction 3. Interface is a genuinely better business than three years ago and the improvement is not accounting: gross margin has gone from 35.0% to 38.7% across FY2023-FY… |
| STRA | Strategic Education, Inc. | IDEA | 3 | 2026-09-10 | IDEA, conviction 3. Strategic Education is a debt-free, cash-generative education company priced as a melting ice cube because total enrollment is shrinking, while the earnings mix… |
| SPOK | Spok Holdings, Inc | PASS | 3 | 2026-09-10 | PASS, conviction 3. Spok is a well-run, debt-free, 80%-recurring healthcare communications business with a blue-chip hospital base and an 11.8% dividend yield, and the screen's "de… |
| PRG | PROG Holdings, Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-10 | WATCH, conviction 3. PROG is genuinely cheaper than the screen says, because the screen charged it $760M of Purchasing Power enterprise value and gave it none of Purchasing Power's… |
| PBYI | Puma Biotechnology, Inc. | PASS | 3 | 2026-09-10 | PASS, conviction 3. Puma is a debt-free single-product company with $93.9M of net cash whose franchise earns about $105M a year before research, and the screen is wrong in both dir… |
| OSPN | OneSpan Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-10 | WATCH, conviction 3. OneSpan is a genuinely good little business, 74% gross margin, 77% subscription, net cash, a 3.2% dividend and a 4% lower share count, priced at 16.8x normalis… |
| ORRF | Orrstown Financial Services, Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-10 | WATCH, conviction 3. Orrstown is a good bank at a fair price, and both cases you would build from the headline numbers are wrong. The 266.7% earnings growth is merger arithmetic ag… |
| ONIT | Onity Group Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-10 | WATCH, conviction 3. Onity's 1.5x P/E and 459% earnings growth are one accounting entry, a $120.1M non-cash release of the valuation allowance against deferred tax assets in Q4 202… |
| ITRN | Ituran Location and Control Ltd. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-10 | WATCH, conviction 3. Ituran is a genuinely good business at a fair price with nothing broken and nothing mispriced I can point to: $86M of operating profit on $408M of assets, no d… |
| IGIC | International General Insurance Holdings Ltd. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-10 | WATCH, conviction 3. IGI is a genuinely high-quality specialty underwriter: no debt, A-rated, founder-owned, an 82.8% average combined ratio and 18.2% average ROE since 2020, run b… |
| GIC | Global Industrial Company | PASS | 3 | 2026-09-10 | PASS, conviction 3. Global Industrial is a genuinely good business at a full price, and the screen's 19.4x ranking, last of sixty industrial qualifiers, was roughly right for the w… |
| EPAC | Enerpac Tool Group Corp | WATCH | 2 | 2026-09-10 | WATCH, conviction 2. Enerpac is a genuinely good business, with 51% gross margin, 28% segment EBITDA margin, 20% after-tax ROIC, light capex and a 1910 brand in mission-critical to… |
| EBF | Ennis, Inc. | WATCH | 2 | 2026-09-10 | WATCH, conviction 2. Ennis is a genuinely good business, 30%-plus gross margins, 13.4% operating margins, 14.4% ROIC, zero debt, $49M of cash and a 4.7% dividend, inside a structur… |
| DMC | Del Monte Corporation (formerly Fresh Del Monte Produce Inc.) | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-10 | WATCH, conviction 3. The screen's cheapness is a genuine artefact: LTM GAAP operating income of $77.8M is really $180.9M once Philippine and Costa Rican banana farm write-downs, th… |
| CRI | Carter's, Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-10 | WATCH, conviction 3. Carter's is the number-one brand in U.S. baby apparel at about 9x normalised after-tax operating profit and roughly 10x forward adjusted EPS with no funded net… |
| CASH | Pathward Financial, Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-10 | WATCH, conviction 3. Pathward earns 34% on tangible equity by renting its bank charter to fintechs for deposits that cost one basis point and lending the money out at 9%, and the s… |
| BLBD | Blue Bird Corporation | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-10 | WATCH, conviction 3. Blue Bird is a good business at a fair price with no mispricing to exploit. It is the only independent of the three Type C/D school bus makers, it has taken Ad… |
| VATE | INNOVATE Corp. | PASS | 4 | 2026-09-09 | PASS, conviction 4. INNOVATE screens at 3.3x after-tax profit and a 152% free-cash yield only because the screen read one XBRL tag that captured $62.1M of non-current debt and miss… |
| TOYO | TOYO Co., Ltd | WATCH | 2 | 2026-09-09 | WATCH, conviction 2. TOYO earns real money, $108M of TTM operating income and $82M of TTM free cash flow against a $192M market cap and $26M of net cash, and the screen understated… |
| SD | SandRidge Energy, Inc. | WATCH | 2 | 2026-09-09 | WATCH, conviction 2. SandRidge is a well-run, genuinely debt-free Mid-Continent producer with $114.7M of cash, $1.6B of federal NOLs that make its PV-10 and standardized measure th… |
| SBH | Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. | WATCH | 2 | 2026-09-09 | WATCH, conviction 2. Sally Beauty is a cash-generative, low-growth specialty retailer and distributor at about 9x normalised after-tax operating profit with a 13% free cash flow yi… |
| NGVC | Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. | PASS | 3 | 2026-09-09 | PASS, conviction 3. Natural Grocers is a genuinely good small business, a 17% ROIC specialty grocer with no net leverage, five straight years of gross margin expansion and a family… |
| NEWT | NewtekOne, Inc. | PASS | 4 | 2026-09-09 | PASS, conviction 4. NewtekOne screens at 5.9x earnings and 0.89x tangible book, and both numbers are wrong in the same direction. Tangible book per *common* share is $12.13, so you… |
| MLKN | MillerKnoll, Inc. | PASS | 3 | 2026-09-09 | PASS, conviction 3. MillerKnoll screened at 12.0x normalised after-tax profit because the screen added a $92.3M goodwill impairment from fiscal 2025 to fiscal 2026 earnings that we… |
| LMB | Limbach Holdings, Inc. | WATCH | 2 | 2026-09-09 | WATCH, conviction 2. Limbach is a decent business — owner-direct mix at 75% of revenue, no customer over 10%, $1bn of bonding capacity, better-than-typical cash conversion — that t… |
| IMMR | Immersion Corp | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-09 | WATCH, conviction 3. Immersion is a $253M holding company that every screen misreads, because it consolidates all $1.73B of revenue and all the debt of Barnes & Noble Education whi… |
| IBEX | IBEX Limited | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-09 | WATCH, conviction 3. IBEX is a good business the screen prices off stale data: on trailing numbers it is growing 17% organically, has taken operating margin from 7.8% to 9.8% in tw… |
| HRTG | Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-09 | WATCH, conviction 3. Heritage is a genuinely repaired business: 11% debt to capital, $439.5M of statutory surplus, a reinsurance tower placed $63.2M cheaper with retentions unchang… |
| HLF | Herbalife Ltd. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-09 | WATCH, conviction 3. Herbalife at $12.43 is about 8.8x normalised after-tax operating profit, roughly 5x adjusted earnings and a 21% free cash flow yield, on 2.6x net leverage that… |
| GSL | Global Ship Lease, Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-09 | WATCH, conviction 3. Global Ship Lease is a well-run containership lessor with essentially no net debt, 100% charter cover for 2026 and 90% for 2027, trading at about 5.3x the afte… |
| FLXS | Flexsteel Industries, Inc. | WATCH | 2 | 2026-09-09 | WATCH, conviction 2. Flexsteel did a genuinely good thing: it bought 24% of itself from a founding family at $47 in April, carries no debt, and has eleven straight quarters of sale… |
| FET | Forum Energy Technologies, Inc. | PASS | 4 | 2026-09-09 | PASS, conviction 4. Forum Energy Technologies is a better business than it was two years ago, with net leverage down to 1.1x, 11% of its shares retired in 2025, Q2 segment margin a… |
| ESEA | Euroseas Ltd. | WATCH | 2 | 2026-09-09 | WATCH, conviction 2. Euroseas is a well-run, effectively unlevered, tax-exempt containership owner earning $129M of normalised untaxed operating profit against a $536M enterprise v… |
| DEC | Diversified Energy Company | PASS | 3 | 2026-09-09 | PASS, conviction 3. Diversified is not the cheap quality-growth compounder the screen found; it is a competently run, heavily levered roll-up of depleting wells whose screened numb… |
| CSV | Carriage Services, Inc. | WATCH | 2 | 2026-09-09 | WATCH, conviction 2. Carriage is a good business at a fair price that the screen flagged only because of a bad debt tag: the XBRL feed reported $5.4 million of long-term debt when … |
| BDL | Flanigan's Enterprises, Inc. | WATCH | 2 | 2026-09-09 | WATCH, conviction 2. Flanigan's is a genuinely good little business, a family-controlled South Florida restaurant and liquor chain compounding on menu price and package-store traff… |
| AZTA | Azenta, Inc. | WATCH | 2 | 2026-09-09 | WATCH, conviction 2. Azenta is not the 8.7x compounder the screen produced: that number came from adding a $204 million write-down of a discontinued business back to continuing-ope… |
| ACIC | American Coastal Insurance Corporation | WATCH | 2 | 2026-09-09 | WATCH, conviction 2. American Coastal is a genuinely well-run Florida commercial property underwriter, with a 60.1% combined ratio in 2025, five straight years of favorable reserve… |
| TLS | Telos Corporation | PASS | 3 | 2026-09-07 | PASS, conviction 3. Telos is a genuinely fixed company that is not a cheap stock. The restructuring worked: operating cash flow swung $56.1M to a $30.2M inflow in FY2025, free cash… |
| SIGA | SIGA Technologies, Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-07 | WATCH, conviction 3. SIGA holds $117.6 million of cash, half its market value, against $10.4 million of total liabilities and no debt, so the stub costs about $119 million for a fr… |
| RPD | Rapid7, Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-07 | WATCH, conviction 3. Rapid7 is not the net-cash software compounder the screen describes: it missed $900M of convertible notes, so enterprise value is $939M rather than $316M and t… |
| RAIL | FreightCar America, Inc. | WATCH | 2 | 2026-09-07 | WATCH, conviction 2. FreightCar America looks like a 71% share issuance on top of a broken cyclical, and only the second half is true: the 13,619,377 shares PIMCO received in June … |
| NATR | Nature's Sunshine Products, Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-07 | WATCH, conviction 3. Nature's Sunshine is a debt-free supplement maker at $14.02 with $82.5M of cash, at 3.3x guided 2026 EBITDA after a 50 percent drawdown, with margins and opera… |
| NABL | N-able, Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-07 | WATCH, conviction 3. N-able is a genuinely recurring, 80% gross margin, 29% EBITDA margin security platform at 6.5x guided 2026 EBITDA with net revenue retention that improved to 1… |
| MGPI | MGP Ingredients, Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-07 | WATCH, conviction 3. MGP's headline numbers are wrecked by $179.5M of non-cash impairments that took goodwill to zero, while the cash business still guides to $90-98M of adjusted E… |
| MED | Medifast, Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-07 | WATCH, conviction 3. Medifast is a genuine sub-liquidation-value situation the screen understated by $97.9M: $141M of market value against $169.8M of cash and investments, no debt,… |
| MAGN | Magnera Corporation | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-07 | WATCH, conviction 3. Magnera is a $3.2B revenue nonwovens business at 5.6x LTM adjusted EBITDA whose GAAP loss and 414x screen EV/EBIT hide $63M of operating income, with four acti… |
| KROS | Keros Therapeutics, Inc. | WATCH | 2 | 2026-09-07 | WATCH, conviction 2. Keros trades at $11.32 against $11.72 a share of net cash after every liability, $12.72 once the $20M Takeda milestone lands, so the market is paying less than… |
| JACK | Jack in the Box Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-07 | WATCH, conviction 3. Jack in the Box is a 19 million share stub sitting on $1.4 billion of net debt, so the equity is a levered call on whether a 93% franchised burger chain can st… |
| INGN | Inogen, Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-07 | WATCH, conviction 3. Inogen is a genuine net-cash stub: $106.8M of cash and securities with no debt inside a $143.8M market cap means you pay about $37M, a tenth of revenue, for a … |
| HLLY | Holley Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-07 | WATCH, conviction 3. Holley is a 41-43% gross margin, low-capex portfolio of genuine enthusiast brands whose equity is a thin stub on about $459 million of net debt, so at $3.05 yo… |
| EBS | Emergent BioSolutions Inc. | WATCH | 2 | 2026-09-07 | WATCH, conviction 2. Emergent screens at 7.6x EV/EBIT on a 49% free cash flow yield, and both are artifacts of a CY2025 that no longer describes it: the 5 August guidance cut leave… |
| CRNC | Cerence Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-07 | WATCH, conviction 3. Cerence's 20% free cash flow yield is an artifact of resolving patent litigation with Samsung: $49.5M of one-time revenue against $20.8M of costs, roughly $29M… |
| CLW | Clearwater Paper Corporation | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-07 | WATCH, conviction 3. Clearwater's screen numbers are wrecked by timing, not by the business: $22M of Lewiston outage shifted out of 2025, a $15M weather event and $20M to $25M of w… |
| AKBA | Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. | WATCH | 2 | 2026-09-07 | WATCH, conviction 2. Akebia screens at 5.9x EV/EBIT with a 25% FCF yield and apparent net cash of $131M, and all three numbers are artifacts. The EBIT and cash flow are CY2025 figu… |
| UFI | Unifi, Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-06 | WATCH, conviction 3. Unifi is a real turnaround wrapped around a real asset sale, and both are already in the price. The operating reset is genuine: Americas segment profit moved f… |
| TROX | Tronox Holdings plc | PASS | 3 | 2026-09-06 | PASS, conviction 3. Tronox is a genuinely inflecting business attached to a capital structure that has already claimed the upside. Volumes are the highest since 2022 and prices ros… |
| SXC | SunCoke Energy, Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-06 | WATCH, conviction 3. SunCoke is a real operating recovery that the market has already found: Phoenix Global added roughly $60 million of annual EBITDA for $296 million, coal-to-cok… |
| SMP | Standard Motor Products, Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-06 | WATCH, conviction 3. Standard Motor Products screens far worse than it is: a $37.7M asbestos charge from a brake business sold in 1998 cuts 2025 GAAP EPS from $3.52 to $1.84, and t… |
| SCL | Stepan Company | PASS | 3 | 2026-09-06 | PASS, conviction 3. Stepan's restructuring artifact is real, the $70.5 million charge behind the first-half loss cost only about $7 million of cash and second-quarter adjusted EBIT… |
| RGR | Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-06 | WATCH, conviction 3. Ruger is a genuinely improving business at a fair price rather than a mispriced one. The 2025 loss that makes the screen light up was a $17.0M inventory write-… |
| PHR | Phreesia, Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-06 | WATCH, conviction 3. Phreesia is a real business at 5.2x guided EBITDA with positive GAAP net income, $67M of trailing free cash flow and a roughly net-cash balance sheet, and the … |
| PAR | PAR Technology Corporation | WATCH | 2 | 2026-09-06 | WATCH, conviction 2. PAR has fallen 59% from its high while ARR, revenue and adjusted EBITDA all accelerated, exactly what a fallen-growth screen is built to find, and Voss Capital… |
| ONT | Onterris, Inc. (formerly Montrose Environmental Group) | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-06 | WATCH, conviction 3. Onterris is a genuine, identifiable trough: essentially the whole revenue decline is one enormous 2025 environmental emergency that did not repeat, core consul… |
| OIS | Oil States International, Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-06 | WATCH, conviction 3. Oil States is a real segment-mix mispricing that is not yet a real bargain. The FY25 headline loss is an accounting event: a $112.7 million non-cash impairment… |
| NTGR | NETGEAR, Inc. | WATCH | 2 | 2026-09-06 | WATCH, conviction 2. NETGEAR is two businesses inside one GAAP loss. Enterprise is genuinely good and getting better: $353 million of revenue growing 7%, a record 54.1% gross margi… |
| MTRX | Matrix Service Company | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-06 | WATCH, conviction 3. Matrix has done the verifiable part of a turnaround: gross margin 5.2% to 7.3%, SG&A down 11%, adjusted EBITDA from negative $12.9 million to positive $16.0 mi… |
| MATW | Matthews International Corporation | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-06 | WATCH, conviction 3. Matthews is a stable $170M-EBITDA memorialization business carrying a loss-making industrial equipment arm, $530M of net debt and a 40% stake in a levered bran… |
| MATV | Mativ Holdings, Inc. | WATCH | 2 | 2026-09-06 | WATCH, conviction 2. A $411.9 million goodwill impairment, triggered by the falling share price itself, buried a business generating $242.8 million of LTM adjusted EBITDA and $127.… |
| LOVE | The Lovesac Company | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-06 | WATCH, conviction 3. Lovesac is a differentiated, patented, net-cash retailer at 4.6x the midpoint of its own fiscal 2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance, and its margin damage traces to … |
| LE | Lands' End, Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-06 | WATCH, conviction 3. Lands' End sold half of its own brand to WHP Global for $300 million in cash plus a tender for 7% of the stock at $45 a share against a market price near $12, … |
| KODK | Eastman Kodak Company | PASS | 3 | 2026-09-06 | PASS, conviction 3. Kodak's 49% screened free cash flow yield is one transaction: it terminated its pension plan and $618 million of the $1.023 billion surplus ran through operatin… |
| KE | Kimball Electronics, Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-06 | WATCH, conviction 3. Kimball has a real mix shift but is fairly priced, not cheap, and the screen that surfaced it was wrong about why: its 25% FCF yield is a stale FY2025 working … |
| GCO | Genesco Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-06 | WATCH, conviction 3. Genesco screens as a 21% free cash flow yield with net cash at 0.69x book, but that yield is an artifact of a one-time $60.1M IRS refund collected in Fiscal 20… |
| EGY | VAALCO Energy, Inc. | PASS | 3 | 2026-09-06 | PASS, conviction 3. Vaalco is an operationally competent African E&P: it raised production guidance twice this year without raising capex and restarted Baobab on schedule. But it i… |
| CODI | Compass Diversified Holdings | WATCH | 2 | 2026-09-06 | WATCH, conviction 2. Compass Diversified is a genuinely improving situation, with subsidiary EBITDA up 12.6%, $298M of debt retired in six months, a manager fee cut worth $19M to $… |
| BNED | Barnes & Noble Education, Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-06 | WATCH, conviction 3. The turn is real: the June 2024 recapitalization removed the term loan, net debt is down 33% to $62.6M, First Day revenue grew 28% to $760.1M with First Day Co… |
| BBCP | Concrete Pumping Holdings, Inc. | WATCH | 2 | 2026-09-06 | WATCH, conviction 2. Concrete Pumping Holdings is a genuinely good niche business, with 17% U.S. share, an owned fleet, 38.5% gross margins, 25-year customer tenures and no commodi… |
| ARRY | Array Technologies, Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-06 | WATCH, conviction 3. Array looks cheap on the screen because the screen omits a $506M perpetual preferred and reads a trailing EBIT loss that is really two STI write-offs; undernea… |
| ULCC | Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-05 | WATCH, conviction 3. Frontier's commercial turn is real, but nothing here is a mispricing you can underwrite. The screen's $717M EV omits roughly $3.9 billion of capitalised aircra… |
| TRIP | TripAdvisor, Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-05 | WATCH, conviction 3. American Express has irrevocably committed $700 million of cash for TheFork by year end, 64% of Tripadvisor's market value and taxed at close to nothing on man… |
| SLVM | Sylvamo Corp | WATCH | 2 | 2026-09-05 | WATCH, conviction 2. Sylvamo is a genuine low-cost paper producer at a genuine trough, and the 2026 wreckage is dated and sized by the company itself, an $85M hit from the Riverdal… |
| SHOE | Shoe Station Group, Inc. (formerly Shoe Carnival) | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-05 | WATCH, conviction 3. The operating business of a debt-free, 33%-insider-owned family footwear retailer costs $253M, roughly 4.9x its guided Fiscal 2026 operating income and 2.6 yea… |
| ROCK | Gibraltar Industries, Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-05 | WATCH, conviction 3. The screen's 21.2x is a genuine artifact, since the CY2025 loss is discontinued Renewables and continuing operations earned $3.25, so the same $2.61B EV is 8.2… |
| NX | Quanex Building Products Corporation | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-05 | WATCH, conviction 3. The screen's blank EV/EBIT and -11.4% ROIC are a genuine artifact: the whole CY2025 loss is a $302.3 million non-cash goodwill impairment the company itself sa… |
| JBI | Janus International Group, Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-05 | WATCH, conviction 3. Janus is the market leader in self-storage building solutions at a plausible cyclical trough, capital-light, converting 129% of adjusted net income to cash, wi… |
| HUN | Huntsman Corporation | WATCH | 2 | 2026-09-05 | WATCH, conviction 2. Huntsman is a real cyclical trough that has begun to turn, with Q2 adjusted EBITDA up 62% on volume growth in all three segments and a CEO who already owns 5.1… |
| HLIT | Harmonic Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-05 | WATCH, conviction 3. Harmonic is a real post-divestiture cleanup where the screen is genuinely broken: a $1.164B enterprise value against $14.1M of 2025 trough EBIT reads as 82x, w… |
| FLO | Flowers Foods, Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-05 | WATCH, conviction 3. The forced seller is real and dated, the 49% dividend reset of May 21, 2026 mechanically ejecting a name that had paid 95 consecutive quarterly dividends and r… |
| FC | Franklin Covey Co. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-05 | WATCH, conviction 3. Franklin Covey is a debt-free, 76% gross margin subscription business whose 35.6x screen multiple is a real artifact of $6.7M of FY25 restructuring and $6.9M m… |
| EYE | National Vision Holdings, Inc. | WATCH | 2 | 2026-09-05 | WATCH, conviction 2. The turnaround is real and the screen's 25.9x EV/EBIT is a stale-data artifact of charging CY2025 GAAP operating income against today's enterprise value; corre… |
| EFOR | Everforth, Inc. (formerly ASGN Incorporated) | WATCH | 2 | 2026-09-05 | WATCH, conviction 2. Everforth's screen statistics are stale in the direction that flatters it: the 22.1% FCF yield is CY2025 arithmetic against an LTM 16.9% and an H1 2026 run-rat… |
| ECVT | Ecovyst Inc. | WATCH | 2 | 2026-09-05 | WATCH, conviction 2. The screen's 23.5x EV/EBIT is a genuine post-divestiture artifact, since 2025 GAAP carries a $71.1 million net loss that is almost all the sold Advanced Materi… |
| DLX | Deluxe Corporation | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-05 | WATCH, conviction 3. Deluxe is a real transformation roughly two-thirds done: Payments and Data are 52% of first-half revenue growing 11%, Print's organic decline is only about 5% … |
| DFIN | Donnelley Financial Solutions, Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-05 | WATCH, conviction 3. DFIN is a genuinely better business than five years ago, earning $248.2M of Adjusted EBITDA on $777.5M of sales at 0.7x leverage while retiring 10% of its shar… |
| DCH | Dauch Corporation | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-05 | WATCH, conviction 3. Dauch is the old American Axle after it doubled itself by buying GKN, and the screen's 51.9x EV/EBIT is an artifact of reading pre-merger 2025 earnings against… |
| CRON | Cronos Group Inc. | WATCH | 2 | 2026-09-05 | WATCH, conviction 2. Cronos is genuinely debt-free with $827.0M of cash and investments, 68% of its market value, against total liabilities of $62.4M, and the screen understated th… |
| CPRI | Capri Holdings Limited | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-05 | WATCH, conviction 3. Capri looks like a 6.2x post-restructuring stub with a repaired balance sheet, net debt down from $1.4B to $224M, a revolver extended to 2031 and an $871M buyb… |
| COUR | Coursera, Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-05 | WATCH, conviction 3. Coursera trades at $6.01 with about $822M of net cash, over half the market cap, no debt, and a $500M buyback that has already retired $140M of stock at $5.45,… |
| CNXC | Concentrix Corporation | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-05 | WATCH, conviction 3. Concentrix had a genuine, dated forced seller: GBL took 14.3% of the company as Webhelp merger consideration, sold 6,000,000 shares at $22.25 on 2026-04-29, an… |
| CLVT | Clarivate Plc | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-05 | WATCH, conviction 3. Clarivate throws off $365M to $400M of genuine free cash flow against a $1.32B market value, a 28% equity yield, and all of it now goes to retiring debt that i… |
| BW | Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises, Inc. | PASS | 4 | 2026-09-05 | PASS, conviction 4. Babcock & Wilcox looks like a post-restructuring turnaround with net cash, a 533% backlog increase and a raised EBITDA target, but the number that matters says … |
| APEI | American Public Education, Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-05 | WATCH, conviction 3. American Public Education just removed the risk that could have zeroed it: the August 4 Institutional Combination folds an APUS that was running at 89% of a ha… |
| ZUMZ | Zumiez Inc | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-04 | WATCH, conviction 3. Zumiez is genuinely cheaper than it screens, because the screen missed $57.2 million of marketable securities: real net cash is $124.2 million, 42% of the mark… |
| ZD | Ziff Davis, Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-04 | WATCH, conviction 3. Ziff Davis sold Connectivity for $1.2 billion and trades at $56.31 with about $20 a share of real net cash once you subtract the $186 million tax bill manageme… |
| YELP | Yelp Inc. | WATCH | 2 | 2026-09-04 | WATCH, conviction 2. Yelp is cheap on trailing numbers for a reason visible in its own disclosures, and the fact that decides the framing is that the buyback is paused. The 27% FCF… |
| VSTS | Vestis Corporation | WATCH | 2 | 2026-09-04 | WATCH, conviction 2. Vestis is a real post-spin turnaround that is working: cost per pound flat while revenue per pound rose 2.9%, US segment margin from 6.6% to 9.2%, Adjusted EBI… |
| VRRM | Verra Mobility Corporation | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-04 | WATCH, conviction 3. Verra Mobility is a genuinely recurring toll-processing and photo-enforcement business at 4.5x guided EBITDA and 3.7x guided adjusted EPS after an 83% drawdown… |
| TRS | TriMas Corporation | WATCH | 2 | 2026-09-04 | WATCH, conviction 2. TriMas screens as a cash box on two errors: the screen counts $164.3M of unpaid Aerospace deal tax as spendable cash, and treats 2025 EBIT of $41.3M as operati… |
| STRT | Strattec Security Corporation | IDEA | 3 | 2026-09-04 | IDEA, conviction 3. Strattec is a 4 million share, $291M automotive access supplier holding $108M of net cash, 37% of its market value, that generated $39M of free cash flow last y… |
| SSTK | Shutterstock, Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-04 | WATCH, conviction 3. Shutterstock is priced as a perpetual 19% annual melt by mechanical sellers: arbitrageurs dumped when the Getty deal died on July 7, income funds left when the… |
| RJET | Republic Airways Holdings Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-04 | WATCH, conviction 3. Republic is a fixed-fee regional airline with no fuel, fare or load-factor risk, average contract expiry in October 2031 and leverage down from 2.9x to 2.4x, a… |
| NRP | Natural Resource Partners L.P. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-04 | WATCH, conviction 3. NRP is a zero-capex royalty book that converted 88% of H1 revenue into Adjusted EBITDA, carries 0.2x leverage, and will be debt-free by year-end, with manageme… |
| INVA | Innoviva, Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-04 | WATCH, conviction 3. Innoviva holds $570M of cash and $670M of strategic investments against a $1.54B market cap, so you pay about $691M for a business earning $148M of operating p… |
| HE | Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-04 | WATCH, conviction 3. Hawaiian Electric has converted an open-ended catastrophe into a fixed, dated obligation, and the market has given it credit through two ratings upgrades and f… |
| ELMD | Electromed, Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-04 | WATCH, conviction 3. The screen misprices Electromed in both directions: on the FY26 results filed August 25 it trades at 15.2x EBIT rather than 21.5x, with confirmed net cash of $… |
| CRMD | CorMedix Inc. | WATCH | 3 | 2026-09-04 | WATCH, conviction 3. CorMedix looks statistically absurd at 2.6x trailing EV/EBIT with $107M of net cash, but that multiple is an artifact: DefenCath's TDAPA reimbursement ended Ju… |
| COLL | Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. | WATCH | 2 | 2026-09-04 | WATCH, conviction 2. Collegium looks like a 3.7x EBITDA stub and the ADHD franchise is genuinely working: Jornay grew 41% to $46.1M with prescribers above 30,000 and 29.2% share of… |
| CCSI | Consensus Cloud Solutions, Inc. | IDEA | 3 | 2026-09-04 | IDEA, conviction 3. For three years Consensus looked like a flat fax company because a growing Corporate channel exactly offset a shrinking SoHo channel. That offset has broken: Co… |
| BRBR | BellRing Brands, Inc. | WATCH | 2 | 2026-09-04 | WATCH, conviction 2. BellRing is a good brand in a growing category whose profits have been roughly halved by input cost inflation, tariffs, freight and self-inflicted inventory ch… |
Research and education only. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. No price targets are recommendations; positions and sizing are the reader's decision. Past performance does not predict future results.